From the torch relay to the flurry of scare stories about the security budget, Summer Olympic and Paralympic year has its own pre-ordained choreography.

My own small contribution to this lexicon of Olympic rituals is to pay my quadrennial visit to a well-known department store to buy my Olympic work shorts.

This is when it sinks in that the Olympics and Paralympics are really coming.

Well, with 120-odd days in hand, I have accomplished this arduous mission.

And to show it has sunk in that the Olympics and Paralympics are coming, may I offer the following London 2012 predictions?


● Great Britain will beat its Beijing 2008 medals haul of 47, but may, nonetheless, fail to hang onto fourth spot in the medals table.

My thinking is as follows:

Host nations almost always experience a bounce in their medals totals, but Team GB has already delivered a portion of this through its outstanding result of four years ago.

If absolutely everything that could go right did go right, a tally of as many as 70 medals might not be out of the question, partly because of the unusually wide range of sports – football, for example – where Team GB should be competitive.

I think a total of between 55 and 60 medals is more likely – however, not enough to overhaul any of the top three countries from Beijing.

Of these, I would foresee China experiencing a significant decline from 100 to around 70 medals, with Team USA registering a strong improvement, perhaps to as many as 130 – they mean business, these 2012 Americans.

Russia should edge up towards 80, but probably no higher.


Britain's main challenger for fourth spot is likely to be Germany, which managed 41 medals in 2008, but should do better this time.

I am also expecting a jump from France (2008: 40 medals), again partly because of the wide variety of sports where French athletes could make the podium.

Sliding down the medals table, I expect to see Australia and, possibly, Japan.

Also Kenya, whose long-distance hegemony looks under greater threat than for many years, and Jamaica, which fared, I would say, as well as it could possibly fare in China.

Medal table climbers should include Cuba, whose tally of golds was unusually low in 2008, Brazil, the next Summer Games host, and Kazakhstan, whose boxers may rival Cuba's for supremacy at the ExCel.

● Britain's Paralympians will top their medals table by a country mile

China headed this table too four years ago, but will probably suffer a sharp decline this time.

Team USA should improve on their 99-medal haul from 2008, but not by enough to overtake the host nation.

I expect there to be a real buzz about these Games, which should help home athletes to perform out of their skins.

Brazil and South Korea may rise up the rankings.

● Britain will win more Olympic medals at Eton Dorney than in the Velodrome

Bike fans have no need to worry: Britain's track cyclists look well set for another outstandingly successful Games.

But new rules limiting countries to one athlete per event will affect them and there are, when all is said and done, only 10 gold medals up for grabs in the Velodrome.

Britain's rowers, meanwhile, have been performing impressively and their sport boasts a total of 14 Olympic medal events.

Add to that a further 12 medal events in flat-water canoeing, in some of which Team GB, is well capable of making the podium, and Eton Dorney, west of London, could yield a very impressive return for home athletes.



● Britain will win more Olympic medals outside the Olympic Park than in it

This might seem like a daft prediction at first glance, but when you add traditionally strong British sports such as sailing and equestrianism to the likelihood of a rich rowing haul, the numbers soon stack up.

Tennis at Wimbledon, boxing and taekwondo at ExCel, gymnastics in North Greenwich and, despite everything, football at Wembley should contribute further medal-winning opportunities.

I'd be very surprised if this prediction turned out to be wrong.

● Surprise hit of the Games: women's Boxing

This is partly because of the historic return to the Olympics, which should ensure a good level of interest at the outset, partly because the host nation looks to have a strong team, with at least one medal highly likely, and partly because of the zeitgeist, which demands equal opportunities between genders.

Opponents of the idea of women boxing (or indeed anyone boxing) will no doubt raise their voices from time to time, but I expect this merely to ratchet up interest.

● Britain's women footballers will do better than the men

Reaching the final, in front of a huge crowd, will be a tall order, but a medal for Britain's women's team is by no means out of the question.

The controversy that surrounds the very notion of a men's team, quite apart from the small detail of who is actually going to be allowed to play for it, looks destined to strangle the side's chances at birth.

I would love to be wrong on this one; a genuine British team containing top-drawer players that really clicked would be one of the stories of the Games.

Sadly, it is becoming harder, week by week, to envisage this happening.

David Owen worked for 20 years for the Financial Times (FT) in the United States, Canada, France and the UK. He ended his FT career as sports editor after the 2006 World Cup, including covering the 2008 Beijing Olympics and 2010 World Cup and is now freelancing. Follow him on Twitter here.