Since the full-scale invasion was launched in February last year, both countries have effectively been frozen out by IOC recommendations urging the non-participation of their athletes.

Yet in recent months, the IOC has publicly declared it is exploring a pathway for their return, and welcomed an Olympic Council of Asia (OCA) proposal first revealed back in December for Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete at events in the continent, including the delayed Asian Games in Hangzhou.

Those controversial ambitions appear to be progressing full steam ahead, the latest step closer coming at the OCA's Athletes' Forum in Thailand's capital here, which endorsed a return of Russian and Belarusian athletes to competitions under a neutral banner.

It was an outcome many observers had predicted before the Forum, after an Association of National Olympic Committees of Africa equivalent gathering made a similar declaration when it met in Algeria's capital Algiers last weekend.

While there are still practical issues to overcome, what was an "unsolvable dilemma" appears to have been solved by the Olympic Movement.

In his opening remarks at the OCA Athletes' Forum, OCA director general Husain Al-Musallam set the scene for the event in outlining his stance and belief that Russian and Belarusian athletes should be able to compete "without discrimination", and urging delegates to "give the innocent athletes from whichever country to take part in the upcoming Asian Games".

He defended his stance to insidethegames, referencing "war in Asia from east to west" during the history of the Asian Games and the continued participation of countries, and claimed that Russian and Belarusian participation in sport was more likely to lead to peace than excluding them.

"I believe the athletes, it doesn’t matter where they are born, their nationality or passport, they have nothing to do with any conflicts," Al-Musallam, who is also World Aquatics President said. "They never asked to have a war. They are innocent, and our duty is to help all the athletes.

"We have demonstrated in Asia when we invited the Oceanian athletes in principle that there is no competition in certain events for the Indoor and the Martial Arts. We have demonstrated in the Winter Games to invite some Oceanian athletes to compete in the Winter Games in Sapporo, based on our belief that athletes should always have access to sport, because this will push the respective Governments for peace."

Questioned on Ukrainian criticism towards plans for Russia and Belarus to return to international sport, Al-Musallam recognised their views, but referenced Iraq's invasion of his native Kuwait in 1990.

"Of course, I am sympathising with them. We always help in international support for the Ukrainian athletes, the same like when we supported the Kuwaiti athletes during the 1990 war," he said.

"Did you hear any Kuwaiti athletes ask to kick out the Iraqi athletes from any international event, during and after the war? That's why we believe that to have a peace with our neighbour, to engage our youth together is the only way. You cannot have a better world without dialogue."

Iraq were banned from the Asian Games by the OCA at Beijing 1990 after several countries threatened a boycott, and did not return until Doha 2006.

Regarding the OCA proposal for Russia and Belarus at Hangzhou 2022, which the outcome of the Athletes' Forum did not immediately pave the way for even if a step in that direction, the OCA director general insisted "we will not take an individual decision without proper consultation and agreement, not only with the IOC, with everybody".

In general, it has to be said participants at the Forum were careful with their words on Russia and Belarus. They know the plans will not please everyone, not least in Ukraine, where vast numbers of athletes and officials are angered at the Olympic Movement's position.

Discussions on the issue were the only part of the Athletes' Forum not open to media in attendance, and it was not mentioned on the second day until featuring as one of four concluding recommendations under the banner of support for "Olympism without any discrimination".

Many question the timing of the IOC's move, given the conflict in Ukraine has only worsened since the full-scale invasion on February 24. They believe there should be no place for Russia or its ally Belarus while it inflicts horrifying damage on Ukrainian citizens and sports facilities, and their case has received further fuel with the International Criminal Court's recent issuing of an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin for alleged war crimes.

However, OCA Athletes' Committee chair Mikako Kotani endorsed the OCA's stance, and said there was agreement from all regions of Asia. The former Japanese synchronised swimmer and two-time Olympic medallist also referenced conflicts on her continent as part of her justification.

"What's very simple is that all the areas of Asia, five different zones, all agreed on non-discrimination of sports, and that is no surprise," Kotani told insidethegames. "I was very impressed with how they expressed their feelings as athletes should have done. Equal opportunity to compete wherever they are from, whichever nationality they have.

"The interesting thing is there were some athletes saying we do have wars inside Asia, besides Russia and Belarus, and we do have some difficulty between countries like China and Chinese Taipei and Hong Kong, but we compete just as an athlete wherever you are from, so it is the same for Asian representatives.

"I was not surprised and relieved to hear that they really respect the right of athletes."

Critics of the move for Russia and Belarus' return have argued neutrality is not possible because of links between sport and both countries' Governments and military. They have also questioned the extent to which Ukrainian athletes' concerns have been taken into account in formulating the position. NOC of Ukraine Athletes' Committee chair Georgii Zantaraia conveyed this opinion in a guest blog for insidethegames on the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion.

IOC Athletes' Commission chair Emma Terho was among the most notable guests in attendance in Bangkok. She insisted that steps had been taken to gauge the opinion of Ukrainian athletes, and recognised their concerns.

"Of course we [are] having the exchange with different athletes," the two-time Olympic ice hockey medallist with Finland said to insidethegames. "We had last year the Ukrainians in the European Forum take part there, and we have now been in contact with them.

"Of course there is understandable views coming from their side."

Fellow IOC Athletes' Commission member Masomah Ali Zada, an Afghan born cyclist who represented the Refugee Olympic Team at Tokyo 2020, also pointed to "many countries in conflict", and warned that athletes in Russia faced limitations on how they could express their opposition to the war.

"I have seen a video from a girl who was 20-years-old," Ali Zada said. "She was a student and she was Russian and against the conflict. She didn't want her Government to do war with Ukraine. She wrote an article about it, she said that she does not agree with the Russian Government or with the President, and because of that she was arrested.

"We see that most of the people in Russia do not agree with the war, but they cannot say anything, so I think it is not a problem of athletes. Athletes also are not agreeing with the war, but it's the Government that don't allow athletes to say their opinion, so I think the Olympic Games is for the athletes.

"We don't talk about politics in sport, we just focus on sport, we just focus on unity, on peace, so every athlete has the right to participate in the Olympic Games without any discrimination by nationality, ethnicity or sex, so we have to just focus on our Olympic Movement. 

"The Olympic Movement is for unity, peace, so we have to allow them because they don't want war, it is their Government's war. Athletes want just to do sport and to participate in the competition."

Practical issues with the return of Russian and Belarusian athletes, particularly in Europe. Visa issues with Russian and Belarusian nationals entering Germany have led to an International Fencing Federation (FIE) World Cup in Tauberbischofsheim, where IOC President Thomas Bach grew up, being cancelled. 

The Swedish Fencing Federation was more explicit in cancelled satellite tournaments in Stockholm, its President Otto Drakenberg insisting "it is completely out of the question that we would arrange competitions with participation from these two countries".

The Asian Games proposal is on the table partly because it is "impossible" for Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete at the Kraków-Małopolska 2023 European Games in Poland, which borders Ukraine and has welcomed more than 1.5 million refugees from its neighbour since February last year.

Yet in a sign of the direction the Olympic Movement appears to be taking, the IOC has not even condemned but "taken note" of the FIE decision to allow individual fencers, teams and athletes from Russia and Belarus to return to its events.

The IOC and OCA have insisted that sanctions would remain on the Russian and Belarusian states and Governments even if athletes are allowed to return, including through a ban on national flags and symbols and Government officials attending events.

However, how vigorously this would be enforced is questionable, particularly following the visit of Russian Sports Minister Oleg Matytsin to India to meet his counterpart there Anurag Thakur and Indian Olympic Association President PT Usha, and attend the International Boxing Association Women's World Boxing Championships. Some athletes and officials have expressed explicit pro-war sentiments too.  

The IOC has also said under the exploration of its pathway, only athletes who have not been "actively supporting the war in Ukraine could compete", but further details on how this would be decided are yet to be provided. 

A number of Russian Olympians, for example, attended a pro-war rally organised by Putin at Moscow's Luzhniki Stadium last year, which was met by silence from the IOC and International Federations whose athletes were known to be in attendance. More recently, Russian Fencing Federation vice-president Oleg Lavrichev has been pictured with pro-Russian militants and the "Z" symbol in an apparent show of support for the war.

For all international sports bodies, the Russia and Belarus question is the proverbial elephant in the room that looks set to dominate the Olympic Movement right up to the Paris 2024 Olympics and beyond.

One suggestion has been that dissident athletes from both countries could compete as refugees at next year's Olympics as a compromise, However, the increasingly polarised debate and the IOC's move to explore a pathway means it is approaching the point where you are either for its approach or against it.

Another challenge for the Olympic Movement to deal with is the heart-breaking situation facing women's sport in Afghanistan, where the hardline Islamist group the Taliban returned to power in August 2021.

Its interpretation of sharia law had led to women being excluded from secondary education and sports and required to cover their faces in public and travel with men.

The IOC has expressed its "serious concern" and "strongly condemned" restrictions on the participation of women and girls in sport, although the National Olympic Committee has thus far avoided being suspended as it was from 1999 to 2003 during the Taliban's first Governmental rule.

Ali Zada, who became the first refugee athlete on the IOC Athletes' Commission last year, was granted asylum in France in 2017 and has been training there since after years of disapproval for cycling in Afghanistan. delivered a powerful verdict on the situation in the country.

She warned that the plight of women in Afghanistan and the deterioration in their rights risks being forgotten by the international community.

"Unfortunately in Afghanistan, women don't even have the right to go to school, so sport is something at the end of the list for the rights of women," Ali Zada said.

"If the Taliban, if the Government in Afghanistan don't allow girls to go to school, it's really difficult to convince them to allow girls to do sport, so we have to start firstly from education, from work, integration for the society, and after maybe sport. Sport is at the end of the list for the rights of women in Afghanistan.

"It's so complicated to respond to this question, but I hope one day girls could go to school. Unfortunately, the dream of girls in Afghanistan is limited to going to school. Going to school is a basic right, it's a human right, no one has the right to take this right from women, but unfortunately a country by the name of Afghanistan, women are limited to the houses.

"They are limited from all basic rights, and the world is silent. No one talks about it, no one would like to do something in action for the women in Afghanistan.

"I am really, really sorry for that and I am so sad for that. We cannot forget the women of Afghanistan. We have to talk about them, we have to oblige the world to take action for the women. We don't want this situation to continue for the women. I hope one day it will be changed and women could get back all of their rights, and I hope one day I see Afghanistan with a lot of girls freely on the bike with a smile."

Ali Zada added that she was "really grateful" to the IOC for its Refugee Olympic Team and helping her to fulfil her dream to participate at the Olympics, and hopes she can serve as an inspiration for women in Afghanistan.

"The Refugee Olympic Team allowed me to participate in an Olympic Games, to be a voice for women because I chose cycling," she said.

"Cycling is not normal in my country, but I participated in the Olympic Games and I showed that all women have rights to ride a bike. 

"By my participation in the Olympic Games, I was a symbol of rights, a symbol of power and a symbol of freedom for women, and so I am so grateful for the IOC for creating this programme for the refugees that allows all the refugees to have equal rights like a normal athlete."

While underlining that "the priority is education, work, integration for the society" in search of greater rights for women in Afghanistan, Ali Zada revealed that discussions are ongoing from the IOC with the Government in the country with the goal of securing its participation at next year's Olympics in Paris.

"I think the IOC tried to discuss with the Government of Afghanistan to allow one girl to participate in the Olympic Games, so if the Government allow one girl to participate, there will be a team from Afghanistan that could participate at the Olympic Games," she said.

"If they don't allow it, there will not be, so the IOC tried to discuss with Afghanistan to allow girls to do sport, but unfortunately the situation in Afghanistan is that they [the Government] don't want any rights for the women."

Ali Zada insisted: "I think change has to start from the mentality of people and the Taliban have to change their mentality about the rights of women. The IOC can discuss with the Taliban, and the Taliban have to accept that women have rights to do education, to work, to do sport.

"I hope that it works and the women can do sport in Afghanistan, and there will be a team who represent Afghanistan at the Olympic Games."

Terho said that the Athletes' Committee receives updates on the IOC's contact with the authorities in Afghanistan.

"Of course it is a very important topic. It has been on our table as well," the chair said.

"We have Masomah [Ali Zada] on our Committee, and then internally with the IOC, people that have been in contact and more involved than we have been - we've been getting that feedback and discussing that in our meetings."

From the OCA's side, Kotani said that there could be a show of support for Afghan women at the Asian Games, but claimed it could not interfere with how the country is ran.

"That's a very big topic that I am really interested in, but it is their country and we have to respect each culture and each country, so we are not stepping into how they are as a country," she commented.

"But as an athlete or as a person, I have had contact and many discussions with Masomah and I understand they are in a very difficult situation.

"I was starting to think what can we do through the Asian Games with Asian athletes that can support and give energy to them, not doing anything political but sending a message that we care about you and we wait for your participation, but we are still thinking about it."

Asked for his thoughts, OCA Athletes' Committee vice-chair Tayyab Ikram of Pakistan, who is based in Macau and is also International Hockey Federation President, urged dialogue with the Taliban regime, arguing "the best way is not to table them in isolation".

"It is better to work with them," he told insidethegames. "Yes there are some crucial cases and sensitive cases which you need to help, but I think it is better to work mutually with them and provide access to women's athletes in their own country.

"That is even easier and more strong achievement than trying to bring them out of the country. That is my opinion."

The Olympic Movement is often quick to affirm its political neutrality, but the reality is it cannot solve its unsolvable dilemma on Russia and Belarus without taking a decision that will be judged politically, and it is faced with an ever-worsening humanitarian situation in Afghanistan.

Outside of Athletes' Forums, its stance is set to continue coming under heavy scrutiny, and it has work to do to convince influential politicians - including from the 35 countries who have called for clarity on its definition of neutrality for Russia and Belarus - and the wider public that it is the right one.